北师大珠海分校金融学专业课程 英文版教材 行为金融学6至10章课后答案

Chapter6 miscalibration : is the tendency for people to overestimate the precision of their knowledge.标准误差是人们高估自己知识精确度的一种趋势。 excessive optimism : people’s predictions about the future are unrealistically optimistic.过度乐观：人们对于将来的预测是不切实际的乐观。 better-than average effect: Better-than-average effect says that many of us feel we are smarter or more skilled than average. 好过平均水平效应：我们大多数人都认为自己的智慧或技能比平均水平要好。 Illusion of control: people think that they have more control over events than objectively can be true.控制幻想：人们认为他们有比实际更大的支配事物的能力。 self-attribution bias: the tendency for people to attribute successes or good outcomes to their own abilities , while blaming failures on circumstances beyond their control , can lead to an increase in overconfidence .自我归因偏见：人们通常把成功或好的结果归功于自己的能力，而把失败归咎于自己控制之外的环境。 Confirmation bias: the tendency to search out evidence consistence with one’s prior beliefs and to ignore conflicting data. 证实偏差：是指当人们确立了某一个信念或观点时，在收集信息和分析信息的过程中，他们有一种寻找支持这个信念的证据的倾向，也就是说他们会很容易接受支持这个信念的信息，而忽略否定这个信念的信息。甚至还会花费更多的时间和认知资源贬低与他们的看法相左的观点。 pros of overconfidence:过度自信的优点：当目标确定，行动确定的时候，过度自信可能促进我们的效应。 cons of overconfidence: 过度自信的缺点：过度自信会导致过度交易，从而影响金融市场。 2、miscalibration is greater for hard questions , it is greater when we look at 50% confidence ranges. 3、suppose you are about to bowl with your friends. In standard 10-pin bowling,300 is the maximum score ，and 200 is and excellent one . You are feeling buoyant today and boldly predict 225 as your score, with a 90% confidence range of between 200 and 250. Over the year, you have averaged 175, with 90% of your results falling within 50 points of this magnitude (between125and225). On the basis of your season record, you are excessively optimistic （by 50 points）. Moreover, you are miscalibrated, with your confidence interval being only 50% as wide as it should be. 4、过度自信有以下几个方面的表现，1、标准误差。2、过度乐观。3、好过平均水平。4、控制幻觉。这些表现说明了过度自信是随着时间演变而来的。确定性偏差是指人们有意或无意地寻找支持自己之前的看法的信息和解释,避免不同看法的信息和解释的倾向。所以，即使通过了学习，由于确定性偏差的存在，过度自信不会马上消失。 5、这个球队之前16次常规赛的平均分数是(38*4+34*3+48+49+52+24+56+31+27+20+28)/16=36.1875,而大多数粉丝们认为他们在接下来的四次决赛的平均分会是50，所以粉丝们是过度乐观了。而他们的粉丝有95%的把握确定决赛时的分数会在45至55之间。这个自信区间太窄了。所以粉丝是过度自信了。 Chapter7 1、 IQ and EQ: 智商，是人们认识客观事物并运用知识解决实际问题的能力。而情商是与智商相对应的概念。它主要是指人在情绪、情感、意志、耐受挫折等方面的品质。 Mood and Emotion： An emotion is about something, whereas a mood is a general feeling that does not focus on anything in particular. Mood 是本能的，而emotion是非本能的。 Human brain and the brain of other animal: The cerebrum is what distinguishes the human brain from those of other vertebrate animals. The ability to plan for the future is critical to the advancement of the human species. Phineas Gage and Elliot: yes , I agree. emotional intelligence reflect a person’s ability to identify and manage their own emotional responses, as well as those of others. Emotion allow us to make quick, appropriate, and rational responses to stimuli, including such divergent situations as a dangerous encounter or a financial decision. A person’s success is dependent on his emotional intelligence, in addition to his intelligence quotient. So emotional intelligence may be just as important as investment knowledge. （Cognitive antecedents: ）I will feel happiness and surprise when I won a lottery with a $10 million prize because I know this is a rare event and I am so lucky.（Intentional object:） I am so happy and surprised because i won the prize.（Physiological arousal:）My body actually goes through hormonal changes when I experience an emotion. At the time that I won the prize, I might feel my blood pressure rising.（Physiological expressions:） I might express my happiness and surprise at the news that I won the prize by screaming or jumping up.（Valence:） I am feeling very positive toward the prize.（Action tendencies:） In some case I might purchase more lottery, but due to the exist of my reason, I decide against buying more lottery because I know I won be so lucky all the time . 基于phinea和elliot的经验和大量其他脑部受伤的病例以及对大脑大量的研究，damasio总结出情感对理智有着重大的影响。理智和情感是人类完整的一部分，大脑和身体是连通的，如果我们不认识身体和大脑之间的联系，我们就不能明白人类的行为。Damasio的研究表明情感与理性决策是互为补充的。 1、当决策至关重要时，情感推动个体做出决策。2、情感有助于做出最优决策。 Chapter8 1、 Good company and good stock 好的公司在于管理的质量而好的股票在于长期投资的价值。 Momentum-chaser and contrarian 现在有一个实验，有两只股票，一只是前5年的平均收益为5%，另一只是前五年的平均收益为15%，根据专家分析，这两只股票在未来五年每年可获利10%。那么，是Momentum-chaser的话就会把多于50%的比例投资与第一只股票，而contrarian就会把多于50%的比例投资与第二只股票。 International diversification and domestic diversification 国际多元化能比国内多元化分散更多的风险。 Anchoring and herding 锚定是指人们倾向于把对将来的估计与已采用的估计联系起来，同时易受他人建议的影响，而羊群效应是指投资者在投资信息环境不确定的情况下，易受其他投资者的影响，从而模仿他人决策。 2、0．15log(s)—质量好，是大公司。 B/M—市场价值高 MQ—管理好 而这些都是与长期投资价值有关的因素。 3、本土偏好的一个合理解释是信息优势。a. 因为近，你可以知道得更多。 b. 从本土公司那获得的收益可能出现在改进的监督能力以及获得的私人信息上。 4、（1）是的。A.因为距离、文化和语言关系，人们会选择当地的投资，他们熟悉所有级别的品种的投资。B.如果在当地投资，他们有信息优势，他们了解当地的企业，甚至可以监督他们，从而提升公司业绩，甚至拿到未公开的信息，获取更多回报。C.这也是理性行为，是避险需求。 （2）是的。因为文化原因，不同的地区有不同的语言不同的文化，对企业来说，文化的认同是很重要的。 5、a.就单只股票而言，价钱的转变会收到其他股票价钱转变的锚定，市盈率也会受到其他公司市盈率的锚定。 b．股票的名称、代码的好坏会影响人们的投资决策，进而影响股票价格。 c．没有信息冲击的较为稳定的资本市场上，投资者锚定分红，他们认为分红就是就是与上期相同，将下一期的分红情况锚定在上期的水平上进行调整，并且反在分红固定时才能使市场达到稳定状态。 d．A股市场存在8多4少的现象，B股市场因为大部分是境外投资者而没有此现象。 Chapter9 1、indirect and direct tests of relationship between overconfidence and trading activity Sensation seeking and overconfidence Overconfidence is the tendency for people to overestimate their knowledge,abilities,and the precision of their information,or to be overly sanguine of the future and their ability to contro